📊Truth Score: Shutdown Reveals Growing MAGA Fractures

The past couple of days have felt like the seven stages of government shutdown grief. Maybe it’s my jet lag from a whirlwind trip to a conference in Dubai. Or perhaps it was my most recent podcast episode with Arun, where we both admitted that strategically, this shutdown wasn’t going to break the way Democrats needed.

Whatever the reason, I’ve run the full emotional gauntlet—from denial and frustration to reluctant clarity. Today, I’m somewhere between working through it and acceptance. And I’m ready to ask the right question:

What does MAGA think just happened?

I conducted the latest Truth Score poll to find out. Here’s what came back from my national survey of 250 likely MAGA-aligned voters:

🟥 Tied for first (48%)
“Democrats caused the shutdown because they want free healthcare for illegal immigrants.”
“Democrats caused the shutdown by refusing to cut wasteful government spending.”

🟧 Second place (23%)
“Trump supported cutting food stamps so illegal immigrants can’t get them.”

🟨 Third place (22%)
“Republicans could have reopened the government sooner by making a deal to lower healthcare costs.”

A few other highlights:

Yes—third term. That was the other question we asked.
Should Trump run again in 2028?
✅ 41% said yes
❌ 49% said no
🤷 10% said not sure

MAGA is fracturing

Clearly, some MAGA voters still accept the propaganda about illegal immigrants. These voters are likely too far gone to join our anti-authoritarian movement. Indeed, a slight plurality (46%) of those who believe Democrats wanted free healthcare for illegals think Trump should go for a third term.

But dig a little deeper and the opportunity reveals itself. That was the only subgroup of respondents who thought Trump should run in 2028. Every other subgroup had pluralities, if not outright majorities, if not supermajorities as high as 75%, against Trump 2028. As grocery prices and healthcare costs rise, small cracks are forming. These margins matter—especially in swing states. 

For example, I dug into responses from Pennsylvania. Among the respondents that believe Republicans could have made a deal on healthcare costs, 75% do not think Trump should run for a third term. That is a gettable MAGA swing audience. 

It also shows that the next shutdown—or any manufactured crisis—can’t be left to the narrative whims of the Right. If we don’t invest more resources in defining what just happened, others will. Remember, many of these individuals are not exposed to narratives that run counter to the propaganda spoon-fed to them daily, even as their lives are becoming increasingly difficult.

I'll be breaking down the cross-tabs and what they tell us about persuasion opportunities in a new Forecast exclusive for paid subscribers later this week.

If you’re not a member yet, now’s the time.

Let’s keep building.

—Keegan