The Death of Truth is the Ultimate Victory of Evil

Way back in 2002, I was managing a campaign in Davenport, Iowa when Democratic senator Paul Wellstone died tragically in a plane crash. I remember the aftermath vividly. The Right was outraged—utterly shocked and appalled!—that there was any hint of partisanship at his memorial. They successfully generated an indignant news cycle, and Democrats ashamedly apologized. Many argue that the controversy knocked the wind out of our sails right before the midterms and propelled the GOP to significant gains. 

Fast forward 23 years.

Charlie Kirk’s memorial service becomes a WWE-style MAGA rally. Trump uses the occasion to double down on the positions that turn off normal people. Meanwhile, his Kimmel crackdown inspires a boycott—one big enough to drop Disney’s stock valuation by $6 billion and force the corporation to unbend the knee. Sensing a disfavorable shift, the MAGA machine cranks into full culture war mode:

All of it feels like a reflex—anything to avoid discussing Epstein, their overreach, or the disarray in their coalition. As always, Trump loves to create chaos when the zeitgeist isn’t favoring him. Or perhaps, after Stephen Miller’s very public and hate-filled diatribe on Sunday, Trump is realizing he needs to get back into the shadows.

Something’s changed. There’s a new kind of static in the air. The messaging isn’t quite landing. There is an opportunity this week to put MAGA on defense and widen the cracks appearing in their coalition. More data on that for you soon, but first, here is The Drift for this week.

While Jimmy Kimmel hasn’t topped Charlie Kirk in The Drift, he came awfully close. We’ll have to see how long attention stays on him versus Kirk. It’s interesting to note that they’ve become the dual faces of scam PACs on both sides of the aisle. I’ve tracked $266,488 in ad spending around Kirk this past week and $274,146 for Kimmel. Most ads like the ones below are geared towards making consultants money as opposed to accomplishing anything.

Don’t tell Mothership (the firm behind Progressive Turnout Project) this, but Tylenol-gate has the potential to be even more potent than Kimmel. The distraction by Trump and RFK Jr. has the markings of something powerful for both fundraising and persuasion. People, especially parents of autistic children, are pissed. Many people, regardless of their political leanings, are openly mocking Trump. Even Dr. Oz is walking back the pseudoscience for once. 

Last week, I shared with you the inspiration for a new component to The Drift. I called it Future Signals. That was a suggestion from the AI version of myself, lovingly called KPT. I didn’t find the name very compelling, but I also wanted to get the email out and not dwell on it further. But the more time I spent on this new offering—combining trend data with polling data to indicate what could qualify as a MAGA wedge issue—it hit me like a Wookiee’s smack. Senator Mon Mothma’s speech (from the show Andor) reminded me of what we need to focus on most right now: The truth.

Right now, as our country recycles Nazi history, using the truth as a weapon is even more important than ever. My offering to this strategy: the Truth Score.

I started with a simple question to 45- to 75-year-old registered voters who are likely MAGA in the Midwest and the South: “Which of the following statements do you believe are true?” Here are the top three responses for the first poll of 250 individuals:

39% - The GOP is helping billionaires more than working people.

37% - Christian values are being replaced by political extremism.

34% - Trump and RFK Jr. are spreading misinformation about the causes of autism.

Most remarkable to me was that in the Midwest, the autism statement was at 42%. It’s a small sample size of 35 people, so take it with a grain of salt; however, I read that as a signal that there is enormous potential to shift older Midwest MAGA voters’ perspective on Trump.

I feel like I’ve struck gold with this approach. I’ll be sharing more details about the poll with paid subscribers, so if you want to access additional data, make sure to upgrade to a paid membership. 

For those of you who haven’t watched Andor yet, I urge you to do so, especially while Disney is back on the light side of the Force. It’s a moving look at fascism, radicalization, genocide—and resistance. .. For those that don’t want to watch, here is a portion of Senator Mothma’s speech that I think you will also find inspiring in our times:

My main motivation for The Drift and the Truth Score is simple: Our data is flawed. In my wild journey as a political hack, I’ve been a part of 17 election cycles. One constant since the Obama era is that we overestimate our data’s predictive power. 

I’ve experienced the process countless times. We poll, we craft creative, we test creative, and then we launch it about a month or two from the original point of data collection. (Yes, there is actually a lot more within that, but this point stands.) The Democratic and Progressive professional class is not able to move quickly enough with the data we have. And that is one of the biggest reasons why the GOP keeps outperforming polls, especially in election years. 

So here’s my ask for you: Do you know anyone who might want to sponsor a new approach that can help the anti-fascist movement win? It helps with raising money, persuasion, and mobilization. I know from experimenting with The Forecast that I can’t raise enough money from subscriptions to fund the work needed to truly actualize this data opportunity we have with The Drift. Do you know anyone who might be interested in sponsoring? Reply to this email or reach out. (Just not on FB Messenger, as it’s overrun with spam from pages I shouldn’t have access to still but do.) 

In the meantime, I’m going to keep showing you what I can with limited resources in the hopes it inspires someone to stop using the same losing playbook. When your data is out of date, your “data-driven” campaigns will just keep losing.

Thanks, as always, for being part of this community.
—Keegan